Shrimp stats and storiesThe impact of climate variability on Ecuador's shrimp farms

The success of Ecuador’s aquaculture industry, which leads the world in terms of shrimp exports, with 987,900 tonnes LSE exported from January until September in 2024, is deeply intertwined with the natural climate cycles that influence the Pacific Ocean.

Among the most influential of these climate cycles are the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, which are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These periodic climatic events significantly shape the productivity of shrimp farming: impacting growth rates, disease prevalence and, ultimately, export volumes.

Historical impact of ENSO

Over the past few years, the Ecuadorian shrimp industry has experienced fluctuations in export volumes due to varying ENSO conditions. Data from 2019 to 2024 demonstrates clear impacts during both El Niño and La Niña phases.

El Niño’s influence (2019 and 2023)

El Niño, which is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, can accelerate shrimp growth, improving overall productivity. For example:

• 2019: The shrimp industry managed a total export volume of 718,320 tonnes LSE despite challenges such as flooding and infrastructure damage due to heavy rainfall. The accelerated growth rate supported by warmer water helped offset some of these challenges, though the year’s overall total was lower than in subsequent years.
• 2023: The most recent El Niño phase saw a record-breaking volume of 1,306,040 tonnes LSE of shrimp exported. Monthly peaks were observed in March (115,600 tonnes LSE), May (115,100 tonnes LSE) and June (117,330 tonnes LSE), highlighting how the warmer waters stimulated faster growth at the start of the year, enabling Ecuadorian farmers to capitalise on the favourable conditions.

However, El Niño’s benefits come with risks. Flooding and excess rainfall, particularly in low-lying farming areas, can lead to lower pond salinity and oxygen depletion, negatively impacting shrimp survival rates. Despite this, infrastructure improvements like creating deeper ponds to negate the effects of the rainfall and the stabilising of inlet and outlet channels to optimise water flow in and out of the ponds have helped mitigate some of these risks in recent years.

La Niña’s impact (2020,2021 and 2022)

By contrast, La Niña, which is characterised by cooler ocean temperatures, has posed challenges for shrimp farming in Ecuador. Cooler waters slow shrimp growth, delay harvest cycles, and increase the risk of diseases such as white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) and early mortality syndrome (EMS).

• 2020: Despite La Niña conditions, Ecuadorian shrimp exports increased to 798,640 tonnes LSE from 718,320 tonnes LSE the year before, demonstrating the industry's resilience. This growth was possible through farmers taking adaptive measures such as stocking disease-resistant shrimp strains and improving biosecurity protocols.
• 2021: The total export volume reached 980,130 tonnes LSE as the industry recovered from La Niña's lingering effects. Monthly production numbers steadily increased after June, reflecting the industry's adjustment to cooler temperatures.
• 2022: The last full year in the three-year period that the last La Niña phenomenon lasted showed a further increase in export volumes, many farmers were struggling with disease outbreaks like white spots during the cooler periods, however, leading to an accelerated pace of consolidation in the country. This led to an increase up to 1,168,060 tonnes LSE exported in 2022.

ENSO outlook for 2024 and beyond

The latest NOAA forecast suggests a return to La Niña conditions from late 2024 into early 2025. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, there is a 60 percent chance that La Niña will develop by November 2024, with this phase expected to last until early 2025.

What this means for Ecuadorian shrimp farming

• Slower growth and potential production declines: As water temperatures cool, shrimp growth rates will likely slow down, potentially impacting production volumes in late 2024 and early 2025. Farmers must adapt by adjusting feeding schedules to decrease the level of harmful nitrates building up because of uneaten feed; decreasing stocking densities to minimise the risk of disease outbreaks and keep the stress levels at a minimum; and taking biosecurity measures like increased monitoring of disease presence in pond water and investing in on-site laboratories.
• Disease management: Cooler water temperatures may heighten the risk of diseases like WSSV, making effective disease management a priority for farmers.
• Infrastructure investments: Farmers should continue investing in infrastructure improvements like stabilising ponds structures to deal with the higher water levels to mitigate the impacts of climate variability and fortifying access roads, especially since La Niña may lead to wetter conditions that could affect water availability and salinity in ponds, but also accessibility of farm structures.

However, the forecasted weakness of the La Niña event suggests its effects may not be as severe as in previous years. Returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by spring 2025 could provide some relief, allowing the industry to stabilise and recover during the later months of 2025.

Conclusion

As Ecuador continues to lead the global shrimp market, even though 2024 seems to be shaping up to see a stable or even a low single-digit decline shrimp exports, the industry’s resilience in the face of climate variability remains critical. The upcoming La Niña phase will present new challenges, but Ecuadorian shrimp farmers have proven adaptable, employing strategies that mitigate the negative impacts of both El Niño and La Niña. By staying proactive and investing in resilient farming practices, Ecuador can continue to thrive in an ever-changing climatic landscape. Therefore, we expect Ecuadorian export growth to rebound in 2025 as they diversify into markets like the US and EU where demand seems relatively positive.