Wheat
The 2009/10 US wheat balance sheet is nearly unchanged this month. A 20-million-bushel increase in domestic soft red winter wheat use is offset by the same size reduction in hard red winter wheat as lower prices relative to corn encourage soft red winter wheat feeding. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel, down 20 cents on the high end of the range. Larger world supplies are expected to keep substantial downward pressure on domestic wheat prices with seasonal post-harvest gains limited by the need to keep US wheat competitive in the world market.
Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 3.9 million tons higher as a 0.5-million-ton decrease in world beginning stocks is more than offset by a 4.4-million-ton increase in foreign production. Wheat production is raised 2.2 million tons for EU-27 as higher reported production for France, Denmark, and a number of other countries, more than offset reductions for Germany and Poland. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for Russia on higher reported area. Production is raised 0.5 million tons each for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and 0.3 million tons each for Belarus, Paraguay, and South Africa. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina as continued drought and unseasonable heat limited late seeding and further reduced yield prospects in the central and northern growing areas.
Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are projected slightly lower. Small import reductions for Malaysia, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Venezuela, and Vietnam are partly offset by increases for Algeria and Saudi Arabia. Exports are lowered 0.5 million tons for Argentina as the smaller expected crop reduces competition for US wheat, especially in the Western Hemisphere. Global consumption is raised 0.9 million tons mostly reflecting a 0.5-million-ton increase in Ukraine feeding and a 0.5-million-ton increase in EU-27 food and industrial use. Other changes in projected food use are smaller and mostly offsetting. Global ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 186.6 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month and 64.0 million higher than the 28-year low in 2007/08.
Coarse Grains
Higher forecast US corn production this month boosts 2009/10 feed grain supplies; however, increased projections for exports and feed and residual use limit the increase in ending stocks. US corn production is forecast at 13.0 billion bushels, 193 million higher than in August, with higher expected yields throughout most of the Corn Belt. The national average yield is projected at a record 161.9 bushels per acre. US corn supplies for 2009/10 are projected 164 million bushels higher, as lower carryin and imports partly offset the higher production forecast. Beginning stocks are lowered 25 million bushels reflecting higher expected corn use for ethanol in 2008/09 based on record July and August production of gasoline blends with ethanol as reported by the Energy Information Agency. Imports for 2009/10 are projected 5 million bushels lower with a smaller forecast corn crop in Canada.
Total US corn use for 2009/10 is projected at a record 13.0 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last month and 980 million bushels higher than in 2008/09. Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on higher expected production. Exports are raised 100 million bushels with higher projected imports for Canada and lower production in South America. Ending stocks are projected 14 million bushels higher. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected lower at $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel, compared with $3.10 to $3.90 per bushel last month.
Sorghum supplies for 2009/10 are nearly unchanged this month with production forecast up 9 million bushels and beginning stocks projected down 10 million bushels based on a 10-million-bushel increase in 2008/09 exports. Projected 2009/10 farm prices for sorghum, barley, and oats are all lowered this month reflecting larger corn supplies and weaker corn prices.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are nearly unchanged with a 4.1-million-ton projected increase for the United States offset by declines in foreign countries. Higher foreign coarse grain beginning stocks and increased foreign barley and oats production partly offset a 7.2-million-ton reduction in foreign corn output. Corn production is lowered for China, Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Kenya, and EU-27. China production is lowered 2.5 million tons as yield prospects were reduced by extended summer dryness in western portions of the northeastern growing region. Production for Brazil and Argentina is lowered 2.0 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively, as area is projected lower with price incentives encouraging producers to switch to soybeans. Corn production is lowered 0.9 million tons each for Canada and Kenya, and lowered 0.3 million tons for EU-27. Partly offsetting is a 0.4-million-ton increase in the Serbia corn crop.
World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected higher for 2009/10 mostly on higher expected corn trade. Corn imports are raised 1.1 million tons for Canada and 1.0 million tons for Kenya, based on smaller expected production in each country. Corn exports are lowered 1.0 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for EU-27, but more than offsetting are a 0.3-million-ton increase for Serbia and the 2.5-million-ton increase for the United States. Global coarse grain feeding is raised 3.0 million tons mostly on higher corn feed and residual use in the United States and higher expected barley feeding in the EU-27. Global corn ending stocks are projected 2.4 million tons lower.
Oilseeds
US oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 7.3 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month mostly due to increased soybean stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 3.25 billion bushels, up 46 million based on higher yields. Other oilseeds are up due to higher peanut and cottonseed production. Soybean crush is raised 20 million bushels due to higher projected soybean meal exports. Higher exports from the United States partly offset a sharp decline in projected soybean meal exports for India as a reduced soybean crop limits exportable supplies. Soybean exports are increased 15 million bushels to 1.28 billion reflecting increased supplies and lower projected prices. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, up 10 million from last month.
Soybean exports for 2008/09 are projected at a record 1.28 billion bushels, up 15 million from last month reflecting exceptionally strong shipments in the final weeks of the marketing year. The increase is offset with lower residual, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 110 million bushels. Other changes for 2008/09 include increased use of soybean oil for biodiesel and reduced soybean meal exports. Season-ending soybean oil stocks are projected at a record high of 3.1 billion pounds.
The US season-average soybean price range for 2009/10 is projected at $8.10 to $10.10 per bushel, down 30 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $250 to $310 per short ton, down $10 on both ends. The soybean oil price range is unchanged at 32 to 36 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 422.8 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month. Foreign production is down 1.2 million tons to 326.9 million tons. Global soybean production is projected at a record 243.9 million tons, up 1.9 million as increased production forecasts for the United States and Brazil are partly offset by reductions for China, India, and Canada. Brazil soybean production is projected at 62 million tons, up 2 million from last month due to an increased area projection reflecting favourable soybean prices relative to corn. China soybean production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 15 million based on lower yields resulting from untimely dry conditions in northeastern growing areas. India soybean production is reduced 1 million tons to 9 million due to reduced harvested area and lower yields. A late start to planting resulted in lower-than-expected area sown. Lower yields are projected due to a period of dryness in late July and early August. Global rapeseed production is almost unchanged as lower production for Canada is offset by higher production for EU-27. The EU-27 crop benefitted from record yields in France. Other changes include reduced peanut and cottonseed production for India and increased sunflower seed production for Kazakhstan.
Global oilseed trade for 2009/10 is raised 0.7 million tons to 91.8 million. Increased soybean imports for China account for most of the change. Global oilseed stocks are projected higher mainly due to higher soybean stocks in China and the United States, which are only partly offset by lower stocks in Argentina and India. China soybean imports for 2008/09 are raised to a record 39.8 million tons.
Further Reading
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September 2009
