The balance sheet for feed grains is expected to remain tight in 2011/12 despite projected record-large production. Prices received by farmers are expected to hit record highs for the second consecutive year as low beginning stocks and near-record demand keep projected ending stocks low by historical standards.
Corn prices are expected to average between $5.50 and $6.50 a bushel.
Based on producer intentions reported in the 31 March Prospective Plantings, combined planted area for the four feed grains is expected up four million acres in 2011/12. US feed grain production for 2011/12 is projected at 356 million metric tons, up from 330 million in 2010/11.
Total feed grain use is expected to decline marginally in 2011/12. An expected small increase in feed grains used for ethanol is more than offset by expected declines in feed use and US exports.
Record high corn prices and plentiful supplies of distillers’ grains are expected to encourage feeders to reduce feed grain use.
Declining world corn trade and increased exports from Argentina, Russia and Ukraine will likely temper US exports.
Global coarse grain production in 2011/12 is projected slightly higher than use, allowing a small increase in world stocks.
Domestic Outlook
Feed grain production prospects up in 2011/12
US feed grain production for 2011/12 is projected at 356 million metric tons, up from 330 million in 2010/11. This year-to-year increase stems from a larger projected acreage and yield for corn with only small area increases for sorghum and barley and a decline for oats. Production is expected lower for sorghum, barley and oats.
For the four feed grains combined, planted area is up four million acres in 2011/12. Planted area is based on producer intentions reported in the 31 March Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area is based on historical relationships to planted acreage and yields are based on trend models, except for corn which takes into consideration delayed plantings in some key States (for more complete descriptions, see the following sections for each commodity).
Beginning feed grain stocks are projected at 22.3 million tons in 2011/12, less than half the previous year’s carry-in. Total 2011/12 feed grain supply is projected at 380.7 million tons, about the same as in 2010/11.
Total feed grain use is expected to decline marginally in 2011/12 but some of the components are expected to experience year-to-year changes. Total food, seed and industrial (FSI) use is projected at 171.0 million tons in 2011/12, up 1.4 million from 2010/11. Ethanol production is expected to increase by only 1.3 million tons in 2011/12, following annual average increases of 17.5 million tons over the last five years. Feed and residual use is expected to decline by 2.1 million tons in 2011/12 to 134.4 million. Record-high corn prices and plentiful supplies of distillers’ grains are expected to encourage feeders to reduce feed grain use. US exports are expected to decrease from 52.0 million tons in 2010/11 to 49.3 million in 2011/12. Ending feed grain stocks are projected to increase by 3.7 million tons from the 22.3 million projected in 2010/11. Feed grain prices are expected to be record high.
Feed and residual use down in 2011/12
The 2011/12 US feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus feed wheat on a September-August year is projected at 139.7 million metric tons, down about two million tons from the previous year. Feed and residual use per grain-consuming animal unit (GCAU) is projected at 1.48 tons in 2011/12, compared to 1.53 tons in 2010/11. Total GCAUs are projected up 1.6 per cent on the year to 94.2 million. GCAUs are expected to be up because of increased production of poultry and pork as demand begins to strengthen in the livestock sector, but lower cattle numbers partially offset the increases.
The following is a breakdown of animal production forecasts for calendar year 2012:
- Beef production is expected to be 25.1 billion pounds, down from 26.2 billion a year earlier.
- Pork production is projected at 23.0 billion pounds, up from 22.6 billion in 2011.
- Poultry production is forecast at 44.5 billion pounds, up from 43.6 billion pounds in 2011.
- Egg production is expected to be 7.7 billion dozen, unchanged from 2011.
- Milk production is expected to be 198.7 billion pounds, up from 195.4 billion in 2011.
Changes to 2010/11 balance sheets
Projected US corn imports were increased by five million bushels this month to 25 million bushels, and exports were decreased by 50 million bushels to 1,800 million bushels, reflecting trade data to date. US sorghum imports were raised marginally in 20010/11, also reflecting trade data to date. Projected ending stocks for corn were increased by 55 million bushels to 730 million. The stocks-to-use ratio increased to 5.4 per cent; this is about a 20-day supply and remains low by historical standards.
Projections for farm prices were lowered for corn and sorghum. Prices received by farmers have lagged considerably behind spot cash market bids because many farmers forward contracted last year when prices were much lower. As an example, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported that the average price received by farmers in March was $5.53 a bushel while the average cash price in central Illinois was $6.59.
The projected average price received by farmers for corn for 2010/11 is lowered from $5.20-$5.60 a bushel to $5.15-$5.45 a bushel. To reach the midpoint of $5.25 per bushel, prices for the balance of the year likely have to average more than the $6.40 mid-month April price reported by NASS. The projected average price received by farmers for sorghum for 2010/11 is lowered from $5.20-$5.60 a bushel to $5.15-$5.45 a bushel.
Record corn production forecast for 2011/12
The 2011/12 US corn crop is projected at a record 13,505 million bushels, up more than one billion bushels from a year earlier. This year-over-year change stems from a 4.0-million-acre expected increase in planted area to 92.2 million acres as forecast in the 31 March Prospective Plantings report. Harvested acreage is based on projected demand for silage, reflecting forecast roughage-consuming animal units (RCAU), projected silage yields and historical abandonment. The yield projection is based on the simple linear trend of the national average yield for 1990-2010 (161.7 bushels per acre) adjusted downward by three bushels to reflect the slow planting progress so far this year.
As of 8 May 2011, only 40 per cent of the 2011 corn crop has been planted, which is down sharply from the five-year average of 59 per cent. The slow pace of planting is a result of extremely wet weather throughout much of the corn-growing regions. States where planting progress has lagged the most include Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee and Michigan. Considerable planting occurred in Iowa during the first week in May, allowing that State to catch up to the planting progress for the previous five years. Planting progress also occurred in Illinois but it still lags considerably behind the five-year average.
Beginning corn stocks for 2011/12 are forecast at 730 million bushels, the smallest beginning stocks in 15 years and down almost one billion bushels from 2010/11. Total corn supply is expected to be 14,255 million bushels, up 75 million from 2010/11.
Total corn use for 2011/12 is projected at 13,355 million bushels, below last year’s estimated record high of 13,450 million. This year-over-year decrease stems from a 100-million-bushel decrease in exports and a five-million-bushel increase in domestic use. FSI use is projected up by 55 million bushels, mostly due to an expected 50-million bushel increase in corn used for ethanol. A slow recovery in animal numbers and continued large supplies of distillers’ grains are forecast to lower corn feed and residual use in 2011/12. Corn feed and residual is projected at 5,100 million bushels, down by 50 million bushels from 2010/11.
Ending stocks of corn for 2011/12 are projected at 900 million bushels, up from 730 million projected for 2010/11. Stocks remain historically tight with stocks-to-use projected at 6.7 per cent, compared with the current year projection of 5.4 per cent.
The 2011/12 season average farm price for corn is projected at a record $5.50 to $6.50 per bushel, compared with $5.10 to $5.40 per bushel projected for 2010/11.
Sorghum production prospects down
The 2011/12 US sorghum crop is projected to be 320 million bushels, down from 345 million in 2010/11. This year-to-year decrease stems from a lower expected yield more than offsetting a 200,000-acre-increase in planted area as reported in the March Prospective Plantings report. The 65.3 bushel-per-acre yield is down 6.5 bushels below the yield set in 2010/11. The projected yield is based on the average for 2001-10, excluding the 2002 and 2003 lows and the 2007 high, adjusted for rounding in production.
Sorghum beginning stocks for 2011/12 are forecast at 32 million bushels, down from 41 million in 2010/11. Total supply for 2011/12 is projected to be 352 million bushels, down from 387 million in 2010/11 due to the expected decrease in production and the lower carry-in.
Total use is expected to decrease to 315 million bushels in 2011/12 from 355 million projected for the previous year. Feed and residual use for 2011/12 is projected at 90 million bushels, down from an expected 120 million in 2010/11, as tighter supplies and continued strong demand for ethanol limits feeding. FSI use is projected at 95 million bushels, unchanged from 2010/11. This reflects steady expected use of sorghum for ethanol production. Exports are projected at 130 million bushels in 2011/12, down from 140 million in 2010/11, as lower supplies also impact export prospects.
Ending sorghum stocks are projected at 37 million bushels in 2011/12, an increase of five million bushels from the current year projection. The 2011/12 season average sorghum farm price is projected at $5.00 to $6.00 per bushel, compared to $5.15 to $5.45 projected for 2010/11.
Barley production down in 2011/12
The US barley crop is projected at 175 million bushels in 2011/12, compared with 180 million in 2010/11. This decrease comes from lower expected yields. Harvested area is forecast at 2.6 million acres, up from 2.5 million in 2010/11. Barley yield is forecast to be down 5.8 bushels per acre from a record yield of 73.1 bushels per acre in 2010/11. Barley planted area is from the Prospective Plantings report, and harvested area is based on the 2006-10 average relationship between harvested and planted area. The barley yield is based on the 1960-2010 trend, adjusted for rounding in production.
Barley beginning stocks are expected to be 93 million bushels, down from 115 million in 2010/11. Imports for 2011/12 are forecast at 10 million bushels, unchanged from last year. Total supply is 278 million bushels, down from 306 million in 2010/11. Feed and residual use for 2011/12 is projected at 40 million bushels, down five million from 2010/11. FSI use is unchanged year-to-year at 160 million bushels, as demand for malt remains flat with domestic beer consumption and malt exports expected to be steady. Exports are projected at 10 million bushels, up from eight million expected for 2010/11.
Ending barley stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 68 million bushels, down from 93 million in 2010/11. Prices received by farmers for barley are expected to average a record $5.75 to $6.85 per bushel in 2011/12, compared with $3.80 per bushel in 2010/11.
Oats production down in 2011/12
US oats production is projected at 72 million bushels in 2011/12, down from 81 million in 2010/11. This decrease stems from a 299,000-acre decrease in planted area to a record low 2.8 million. Area harvested for grain is expected to decline to 1.1 million acres. Yield is expected to be 65.5 bushels per acre, an increase of more than one bushel per acre from 2010/11. Oats planted area is from the March Prospective Plantings report, and harvested area is based on the 2006-10 average relationship between harvested and planted area. The oats yield is projected based on 1960-2010 trend, adjusted for rounding in production.
Forecast oats beginning stocks are 66 million bushels for 2011/12, down 14 million bushels from 2010/11. Imports are projected at 95 million bushels, up 12 million from the previous year, with larger expected supplies in Canada. This puts total 2011/12 oats supply at 233 million bushels, down slightly from 245 million in 2010/11.
Total 2011/12 oats use is projected at 179 million bushels, unchanged from 2010/11. Feed and residual use is projected at 100 million bushels, unchanged from expected use in 2010/11. FSI use is projected at 76 million bushels, again unchanged on the year. Exports of oats are projected at 3 million bushels, also unchanged from the previous year. Ending stocks are expected to be 54 million bushels, down from 66 million in 2010/11. Oats prices are projected at a record $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel, compared with $2.45 per bushel for 2010/11.
Hay stocks up in 2010/11
All hay stored on farms 1 May 2011 totalled 22.2 million tons, up six per cent from a year ago. All hay production in 2010/11, at 145.6 million tons, is down about 1.5 per cent from the previous year. RCAUs for 2010/11 are down 1.7 per cent and are expected to be down by a similar amount in 2011/12. Hay disappearance per RCAU fell marginally in 2010/11 to 2.08 tons per RCAU.
Compared with last year, hay stocks increased across much of the Nation’s midsection. In many cases, these increases are attributed to an increase in total hay production in 2010. Stocks on hand were down throughout much of the western half of the United States and along the Atlantic Coast. Lingering winter weather conditions in many Western States forced producers to feed livestock longer into the spring months. Drought conditions in many areas along the Atlantic Coast caused a lack of available winter pastures. Overall, the largest percentage declines occurred in California, Idaho and Nevada.
Corn silage production is estimated at 107.3 million tons in 2010, down almost one per cent from 2009. The United States silage yield is estimated at a record high 19.3 tons per acre, tying the previous record set in 2009. Acreage harvested for silage is estimated at 5.57 million acres, down one per cent from a year ago.
Sorghum silage production is estimated at 3.42 million tons, down seven per cent from 2009. Area cut for silage is estimated at 273,000 acres, up seven per cent from the previous year. Silage yields averaged 12.5 tons per acre, down 2.0 tons per acre from 2009.
International Outlook
World coarse grains production projected up six per cent in 2011/12
Global coarse grain production in 2011/12 is expected to increase 62.2 million tons in 2011/12, reaching 1,146.8 million tons. These early projections assume trend yields for most countries because most coarse grain crops are not advanced enough in their planting or growth cycle to have expectations that deviate from trend. Since global average yields in 2010/11 fell below trend, a return to trend yields in 2011/12 boosts the global average 3.4 per cent. Information on plantings or planting intentions sums to an increase in harvested area of 2.0 per cent as producers respond to strong prices and profitable expected returns. The relatively modest increase in area reflects high prices for competing crops as well as recent record corn prices.
World corn production is projected up six per cent in 2011/12 to 867.7 million tons. Global corn area, up three per cent, is expected to expand slightly faster than yield, up three per cent. Foreign corn production, up five per cent to 524.7 million tons, is expected to expand somewhat more slowly than US production. Foreign area is expected to increase three per cent, responding to attractive prices, but a return to trend only boosts foreign yields two per cent.
China, the world’s second largest corn producer, is forecast to increase corn production 4.0 million tons to 172.0 million. Both area and yield are expected to increase very modestly, just more than one per cent. Although corn prices are attractive and the Government is providing support to corn farmers, the high prices of some competing crops, such as cotton, are expected to limit the area expansion of corn. Trend corn yields in 2011/12 are up slightly from the previous year but three per cent below the record in 2008/09.
EU corn production in 2011/12 is projected up 3.8 million tons to 59.3 million due to a 7.5 per cent expansion in area. Area expansion is faster in countries like Romania, with lower expected corn yields, than in France or Italy, where corn yields are high and stable because of irrigation. Exceptionally favourable rains boosted corn yields in 2010 in Romania and Bulgaria, so a return to trend yields results in a small decline for the EU in 2011/12.
Brazil’s corn production in 2011/12 is very much a projection as the 2010/11 second-crop corn has not been harvested yet. Corn production in 2011/12 is expected to match the previous year at 55.0 million tons. Area is forecast slightly lower as the prices of cotton and soybeans are expected to be attractive. Yield growth is expected to offset the reduced area.
Argentina, also a Southern Hemisphere corn producer and where planting is months away, is projected to increase corn production 4.0 million tons to 26.0 million. Area is forecast up six per cent as corn prices are expected to be attractive, and total cropped area is expected to continue to increase at the expense of pasture. Corn yields are projected up 11 per cent from 2010/11, when dry, hot weather when part of the crop was tasseling hurt yields, but down nine per cent from the record level in 2009/10.
Mexico’s corn production in 2011/12 is projected to reach a record 24.5 million tons, up 3.0 million from the previous year when an exceptional freeze damaged the winter corn crop in Sinaloa (the 2010/11 corn crop is reduced 0.5 million tons this month to 21.5 million based on the latest evaluation of loses in the winter crop). Area in 2011/12 is projected up 11 per cent as record corn prices are expected to encourage plantings. Trend yields are expected to reach a record 3.33 tons per hectare, slightly higher than reached in 2008/09.
India’s corn production in 2011/12 is forecast up 0.5 million tons to 21.0 million. Corn area is expected to continue expanding slowly to a record level, and yields are forecast at a near-record level.
Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to produce another bumper corn crop, 56.0 million tons, up 0.4 million from the previous year. Increased area is expected to more than offset slightly reduced yield prospects, as trend yields imply a modest reduction for several countries. South Africa is projected to produce 12.5 million tons, up 0.5 million due to small increases in both area and expected yields.
Corn production in the former Soviet Union (FSU) is projected to reach 25.3 million tons, up 6.8 million. A return to trend yields and a normal planted to harvested ratio is expected to increase area and yield across the region with a rebound from drought and burning temperatures last summer. Moreover, relative prices and expected returns to producers favour corn more than most other crops. Ukraine is forecast to produce a record 14.5 million tons, up 2.6 million from the previous year. Russia is projected to more than double production from drought-devastated levels, reaching 6.5 million tons.
Canada is projected to produce 11.5 million tons of corn, down 0.2 million from the previous year’s record, as expanded area is not likely to fully offset a return to trend yields. The Philippines is projected to increase corn production 0.2 million tons to 7.2 million with corn prices supporting a small increase expected in both area and yield. Serbia is also projected to increase corn production 0.2 million tons in 2011/12, reaching 7.0 million. Increased area in response to attractive corn prices is expected to more than offset the lower yields implied by a return to trend.
Global barley production is projected to reach 131.5 million tons in 2011/12, up 8.0 million mostly due to improved yield prospects. Harvested area is projected up 0.6 per cent mostly due to normal weather allowing a return to a normal planted-to-harvested ratio is some key countries. Barley prices, especially for feed barley, are not high enough to boost expected returns in most countries to levels that would sustain planted area. A return to trend yields boosts the world average 5.7 per cent.
Most of the increase in global barley production is expected in the FSU, with a rebound from severe drought boosting output 6.5 million tons to 27.5 million. More than three-quarters of the FSU barley production increase is forecast in Russia. Canada is projected to boost barley production 0.9 million tons to 8.5 million as more favourable planting conditions in some regions boost area enough to more than offset a trend yield down slightly from a year earlier. In the EU, a return to trend boosts yields in most countries, more than offsetting a small decline in area. inter rains in Spain have been favourable, boosting production prospects. EU production is projected up 0.8 million tons to 53.9 million. Good winter rains extended into Morocco, boosting yield prospects and supporting a 0.5-million ton increase in production to 3.1 million.
Winter rains across Iran started late, and barley production is projected down 0.5 million tons to 3.0 million. Barley area is projected lower in Australia, trimming production prospects 0.3 million tons to 9.0 million. Barley area is also reported lower in Turkey, reducing production 0.2 million tons to 5.7 million.
World sorghum production is projected to decline 2.5 million tons to 62.8 million. Much of the decline is projected in Sub-Saharan Africa where the previous year’s exceptionally good yields are expected to return to trend, cutting production prospects 1.8 million tons to 27.3 million. Reductions are likely to be most significant for Niger and Sudan. North American sorghum production prospects are down for both the United States and Mexico, with reduced area in Mexico trimming production prospects 0.3 million tons to 6.8 million. However, Argentina is forecast to boost sorghum area and production, up 0.2 million tons to 4.0 million.
Global millet production is forecast down 1.6 million tons to 31.7 million. Above-trend yields across much of Sub-Saharan Africa are not expected to repeat in 2011/12. Also, millet area in India is expected to decline, dropping production 0.7 million tons to 11.0 million.
World oats production in 2011/12 is projected up 3.0 million tons to 22.8 million. The rebound from drought is expected to boost FSU production 2.0 million tons to 6.6 million. Canadian area is projected up sharply, boosting oats production prospects 1.0 million tons to 3.3 million.
Global rye production is forecast up 2.5 million tons to 14.5 million, supported by the rebound from drought in the FSU increasing production there by 2.1 million tons to 5.5 million. Also, a recovery in EU rye yields is expected to boost production 0.4 million tons to 8.2 million.
World mixed grain (mostly triticale) is projected up 0.4 million tons to 15.9 million, with improved yields expected in Poland.
Reduced coarse grains beginning stocks tighten supplies in 2011/12
Global coarse grain beginning stocks for 2011/12 are forecast at 158.4 million tons, down 20 per cent from a year earlier. This reflects global use exceeding production in 2010/11. The reduction in beginning stocks of 38.4 million tons offsets much of the 2011/12 increase in production of 62.2 million, leaving supplies increasing only modestly. Much of the decline in 2011/12 beginning stocks is in the United States but foreign stocks are down 12.6 million tons to 136.0 million.
The largest foreign holder of coarse grain stocks, China, is forecast to start 2011/12 with stocks up 5.2 million tons to 59.6 million. However, the Government of China regards grain stocks as a state secret, and it is not clear what coarse grain stocks are actually available to the market in China. In contrast, EU coarse grain stocks are estimated to begin 2011/12 down 10.6 million tons to 15.2 million as the EU Commission takes advantage of high market prices to liquidate intervention stocks.
Canada’s stocks are forecast down 2.2 million tons to only 3.5 million. Drought-reduced production in 2010/11 cut FSU 2010/11 beginning stocks 2.6 million tons to 4.5 million. Strong domestic use and exports trimmed Brazil’s forecast beginning stocks 1.3 million tons to 9.0 million. South Africa is expected to trim burdensome stocks 0.6 million tons to 4.7 million. Venezuela, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are forecast to reduce coarse grain beginning stocks 0.5 million tons each. Australia is expected to cut stocks 0.4 million tons year-to-year. Countries with an increase in coarse grain beginning stocks include Argentina, up 0.9 million tons to 1.9 million; Sudan, up 0.5 million to 0.8 million; and India and Ethiopia, up 0.4 million each.
High prices to limit growth in world 2011/12 coarse grain use
Global coarse grain use in 2011/12 is projected to increase 1.8 per cent to 1,142.8 million tons. This is a faster rate of growth than in 2010/11, when total use is estimated up 1.3 per cent and global feed and residual use is forecast to actually decline. In 2011/12, feed use is projected up 1.5 per cent to 657.6 million tons. World wheat feed use is expected to increase 1.1 per cent from relatively high levels in 2010/11, limiting the growth in coarse grain feeding. However, strong meat prices, supported by increased meat trade and global economic growth, are maintaining the profitability of feeding grain to animals despite the high level of feed grain prices.
World food, seed and industrial use of coarse grains in 2011/12 is projected up two per cent to 485.2 million tons. This is slower than the growth in 2010/11 when large crops across Sub-Saharan Africa encouraged increased food use. The slow-down in growth of US corn use for ethanol is also a factor.
While US coarse grain domestic use is expected to decline in 2011/12, foreign use is projected up three per cent to 837.1 million tons. China’s coarse grain use is forecast up two per cent to 176.2 million tons despite the Government’s measures to restrain growth in industrial use of corn. Feed use is projected up 2.1 million tons to 116.4 million as disease problems in the hog sector limit growth. EU coarse grain use is projected to decline 3.6 million tons to 148.4 million. Sluggish meat production and an increase in wheat feed use explain the decline. In the FSU, coarse grain domestic use is forecast up 9.5 million tons to 51.5 million due to increased grain production, expansion of meat production, and reduced use of wheat for feed. While Japan is expected to continue to have a small decline in coarse grain use, most countries are expected to experience modest increases in line with modest growth in meat production.
World coarse grain ending stocks to increase slightly in 2011/12
Global production in 2011/12 is projected to be 0.3 per cent larger than forecast use, allowing for a very modest 4.0-million ton increase in ending stocks to 162.4 million. Corn stocks are projected up 7.0 million tons to 129.1, as prices encourage production and slow use expansion. In contrast, world barley stocks are projected to decline 2.7 million tons to 21.8 million. The production rebound for barley is muted in 2011/12 by more attractive prices for corn and oilseeds. While barley use is forecast to decline slightly, consumption remains projected larger than production. World sorghum production is expected to decline in 2011/12, as is sorghum use, leaving global ending stocks nearly unchanged. World oats and rye stocks are also not expected to change much.
Foreign corn ending stocks are only expected to increase 2.6 million tons in 2011/12, reaching 106.3 million. China’s corn stocks are projected up 4.3 million tons to 63.0 million as the Government pursues policies that try to dampen prices. With increased corn production, stocks are also expected to increase for Ukraine Argentina and Mexico. However, for Brazil, the EU and most other countries, corn stocks are expected to decline or remain tight.
World corn trade, US exports to decline in 2011/12
Global corn trade in 2011/12 (October-September) is projected at 91.8 million tons, down 1.1 million from the previous year. EU corn imports are expected to drop 2.5 million tons to 4.0 million due to increased production, sluggish demand and increased wheat feeding. China’s corn imports are projected down 1.0 million tons to 0.5 million, mostly border trade with neighbouring countries. International prices are expected to stay high enough relative to prices inside China to discourage larger imports. Among other major importers increased production is expected to trim imports 0.5 million tons for Indonesia and slightly for Peru. In South Korea, the recovery pace from animal disease problems and the continued availability of competitive feed wheat are projected to limit corn imports to 7.7 million tons, down 0.3 million year-to-year. Israel is expected to reduce corn feed use and imports slightly. These import declines more than offset slow growth in imports by many other countries. Canada’s corn imports are expected to rebound 0.6 million tons to 1.4 million from the exceptionally low level in 2010/11. Brazil’s corn imports are projected up 0.3 million tons to 1.0 million because of ample supplies in neighbouring countries.
With stagnant global trade, corn exporters will vie for market share. High US prices will allow some other exporters to expand. Argentina, with expanding production, is expected to be the main beneficiary with corn exports up 3.0 million tons to a record 17.0 million. Brazil, with stagnant production, relatively tight stocks, strong domestic use and government subsidies needed to overcome high internal transport costs, is projected to reduce corn exports 3.0 million tons to 8.0 million. Ukraine, with increased production prospects, is expected to increase exports 0.5 million tons to 6.5 million. Serbia is forecast to increase corn exports 0.2 million tons to 2.2 million as investment in infrastructure expands export capacity. India’s internal demand growth is forecast to reduce export prospects 0.2 million tons to 2.2 million. Transportation costs are expected to limit South Africa’s exports to 2.0 million tons, down 0.2 million. Canada is projected to rebuild corn stocks and trim exports 0.6 million tons to 1.0 million. Russia’s corn exports are projected to reach 1.0 million tons in 2011/12. After being a net importer the previous year, Russia sharply increased corn production which is expected to facilitate the opening of exports. Small increases in exports are projected for Mexico, Paraguay, Laos, Cambodia, China and other countries.
US corn exports in 2011/12 are projected to decline 2.5 million tons to 46.0 million (down 100 million bushels to 1.8 billion for the September-August local marketing year). Declining world trade and strong domestic demand are expected to keep US corn prices high enough compared to competitors, to limit exports.
US 2010/11 corn export forecast reduced
US corn exports for 2010/11 are reduced 1.5 million tons to 48.5 million (down 50 million bushels to 1.9 billion for the local marketing year). The pace of sales and shipments in recent weeks has not supported the previous forecast. According to Census data, October 2010 to March 2011 corn exports reached 21.7 million tons, down 3.5 per cent from the previous year. Grain Inspections data for April 2011 indicate shipments of 4.2 million tons, slightly above a year ago. As of 5 May 2011, outstanding export sales reached 11.4 million tons, up slightly from 11.1 million a year earlier. Future export sales are not expected to offset the slow pace of export shipments during the first months of the trade year. Several competitors are exporting more corn than previously expected. Argentina’s 2010/11 trade year exports are increased 1.0 million tons this month to 14.0 million as the Government is expected to make additional export quota available. Canada’s corn exports are increased 0.6 million tons to 1.6 million based on the strong pace of shipments. Ukraine’s corn export prospects are raised 0.5 million tons to 6.0 million as export restrictions are in the process of being raised. Serbia’s corn exports are up 0.3 million tons this month to 2.0 million based on recent shipments.
Further Reading
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May 2011
