Rupinder Pal Singh is a shrimp farmer in Jandwala Charat village in India’s Punjab state. The 35-year-old has been farming shrimp across 35 acres for the past six years and says he has been making decent profit. But, this year, he is yet to start cultivation in earnest, due to the Trump administration’s announcement of plans to apply a 26 per cent tariff on Indian exports to the US – which traditionally the main market for Indian shrimp. 

Although the figure has since been reduced to 10 percent – at least for 90 days – India’s shrimp sector is facing chronic uncertainties. 

“Shrimp farming usually begins in April [when the first batches of post-larvae are stocked in the ponds], but I am yet to start this season as the announcement of tariffs has put me in a state of jeopardy. The 90-day embargo has further raised the risk of tariffs likely to be implemented after the end of the duration that might hit the shrimp industry badly,” he explains.

“We are already facing high cost of power and labour charges and the announcement of tariffs have come as a major blow,” he adds. 

Singh is not alone, as thousands of shrimp farmers, processors and exporters have been deeply concerned since Trump’s announcement on 3 April, despite the reduction that took pace the following week. 

Indian reliance on the US

In 2024, India’s exports of frozen shrimp were 716,004 tonnes, worth $4.69 billion. Exports to the US accounted for 41 per cent of this figure, at 297,571 tonnes, according to the country’s Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA).

Manoj Sharma, one of the first and largest shrimp farmers in Gujarat, who set up Mayank Aquaculture Private Limited, is concerned.

“The bigger question is who will absorb the [cost of the] tariffs imposed by the US. I fear that the real sufferer will be the farmer and his profit margin will take a drastic hit. The price of vannamei has already fallen by Rs 50 [$0.59]  per kg and farmers are already in a state of panic, with many staying away from farming or doing cultivation in a relatively small area. The [ultimate] consequences will only be known after 4 or 5 months, but there might be a drop of over 20 per cent in [national] shrimp production, this year,” he reflects.

“However I am still hopeful that the tariffs will be reduced,” he adds.

Wider industry concerns

Several exporters say that they have pinned their hopes on bilateral discussions between the two countries. 

“We are expecting a positive outcome of the dialogue between India and the US and hope that the tariffs might be waived or else it will be very difficult for the shrimp industry in India to sustain itself, as we are already working on very thin margins,” points out Yogesh Gupta, managing director of Megaa Moda Private Limited, which exports shrimp from India to over 30 countries. 

“Ecuador is already posing a big challenge to us in terms of faster turnaround time and lower freight charges. The tariffs in both the countries [India and Ecuador] are on a par at 10 per cent, but the additional reciprocal tariff of 26 per cent if imposed after the end of 90-day embargo would be deadly for our shrimp business. The government should also re-introduce the Transport and Marketing Assistance (TMA) scheme, as that would help Indian exporters lower the freight charges,” Gupta argues.  

On top of the new tariffs, Indian shrimp exporters to the US also face a 5.77 per cent countervailing duty charge and 2.49 per cent anti-dumping duties, while Ecuador faces no anti-dumping duties and 3.78 per cent countervailing duties, he added. 

Exporters have responded by offering farmers less for their shrimp. 

“Exporters have reduced offer prices by approximately 10 per cent since the tariffs were announced, as demand from US buyers has weakened and renegotiations have become common. The price of the 100-count vannamei shrimp has dropped from Rs 240 [$2.81] to Rs 200 [$2.34] per kilogram,” says Divya Kumar Gulati, chairman of the Compound Livestock Feed Manufacturers’ Association (CLFMA).

“Overall, prices for shrimp have dipped by 10-15 per cent, with processing plants lowering prices by nearly  Rs 40-50 [$0.59] per kilogram following the tariff announcement,” he adds. 

“Shrimp feed manufacturers have responded by lowering their prices by Rs 4 [$0.047] per kg to help farmers. But both the exporters and farmers are facing uncertainty, with [some of] the latter regretting their decision to invest in shrimp cultivation,” he continues.

However, he hopes that intervention from India’s government can help to keep the sector afloat.  

“The government can reduce or eliminate import duties on essential inputs for shrimp farming, such as feed and other necessary items. It is also important for India to diversify and find other markets in Europe and Middle East and also to increase domestic consumption of shrimp to tackle the challenges posed by the US tariffs and volatility in global trade policies,” Gulati argues.

In the meantime, the industry can only hope that the US and India resolve their differences, and that the prospect of high tariffs is dropped, otherwise the livelihoods of thousands in India’s shrimp sector will remain under threat.