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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - November 2009

According to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WOAB), this month's estimates for global wheat and oilseed supplies for 2009/10 are up, while those for corn are down. Prices next year are predicted to be up because of higher corn and soybean futures prices.

Wheat

US wheat supplies for 2009/10 are reduced four million bushels this month with small downward revisions to hard red spring wheat and durum production. Exports are projected 25 million bushels lower based on the slow pace of export sales and shipments and increased competition from major Black Sea exporters. US ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected 21 million bushels higher. Ending stocks would be a 10-year high at the projected 885 million bushels. The projected marketing-year average farm price range is narrowed 10 cents on both ends of the range to $4.65 to $5.05 per bushel. Recent gains in futures prices have supported farm gate prices while limiting export opportunities for US wheat.

Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected 1.7 million tons higher as increased production more than offsets a reduction in beginning stocks. Foreign production is raised 3.9 million tons with most of the increase in FSU-12 as an extended growing season and favorable harvest weather boosted yields. Production is raised 2.0 million tons each for Kazakhstan and Russia as harvest results indicate higher yields for spring wheat. Ukraine production is raised 0.5 million tons reflecting late season revisions to winter wheat yields. Production is raised 0.8 million tons for Syria as increased use of irrigation raised yields. Chile production is also raised 0.3 million tons on higher reported area. Production is lowered 1.1 million tons for EU-27 with reductions for France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain more than offsetting small increases elsewhere. Production is also lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada as above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures during October delayed harvesting and raised the potential for field losses, particularly in northern Saskatchewan.

Global wheat trade for 2009/10 is projected higher this month. Imports are raised for EU-27, Israel, South Korea, Syria, Turkey, Bangladesh, and China more than offsetting reductions for Chile and Angola. Higher exports for Russia, up 1.5 million tons, and Kazakhstan and Ukraine, each up 0.5 million tons, are partly offset by reductions for EU-27 and Canada, down 1.0 and 0.5 million tons, respectively. Abundant supplies of low-priced Black Sea wheat are expected to limit export opportunities for the traditional exporting countries including Canada, EU-27, and the United States. Global consumption is raised with increased wheat feeding expected in Russia, Israel, South Korea, and Morocco. Global ending stocks are projected 1.5 million tons higher as the increase in world output more than offsets lower carryin and the relatively small increase in consumption.

Coarse Grains

US feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected lower this month reflecting lower forecast corn production. Corn production is forecast 97 million bushels lower with a 1.3-bushel-per-acre reduction in the forecast yield. US corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments in recent weeks and prospects for increased competition from larger Black Sea corn and wheat supplies. US corn ending stocks are projected down 47 million bushels. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm price projection is raised 20 cents on each end of the range to $3.25 to $3.85 per bushel. Barley ending stocks are raised 5 million bushels mostly reflecting a drop in projected exports based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date. Reflecting the higher expected corn price, marketing-year average farm prices are projected higher for sorghum, barley, and oats.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 2.0 million tons lower, as reduced corn beginning stocks and production are only partly offset by higher EU-27 mixed grain, barley, and oat production, and higher Kazakhstan barley production. Global corn beginning stocks for 2009/10 are lowered 0.9 million tons mostly reflecting higher 2008/09 feed use for EU-27 and higher food, seed, and industrial use for South Africa. Global corn production for 2009/10 is lowered 2.8 million tons with reduced production for the United States, Brazil, EU-27, Russia, Venezuela, and Canada only partly offset by increases for South Africa and Ukraine. Brazil production is reduced 1.0 million tons on lower expected area. Production is lowered 0.4 million tons for EU-27 and 0.3 million tons each for Russia and Venezuela. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for South Africa as producer intentions indicate higher planted area and abundant early season rains support timely planting. Ukraine production is raised 1.0 million tons on higher reported yields.

World coarse grain trade is projected slightly lower for 2009/10 mostly reflecting reduced prospects for US corn and barley exports. Barley exports are also reduced for the EU-27, down 0.2 million tons. Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton increase in Ukraine corn exports. Corn imports are lowered 0.3 million tons for Israel with higher expected wheat feeding. Barley imports are lowered 0.2 million tons for Jordan with lower expected feeding. Global coarse grain ending stocks are lower this month with a 3.8-million-ton reduction in world corn stocks. Much of the decrease is based on this month’s US changes, however, other major reductions in 2009/10 corn ending stocks are projected for EU-27, down 1.7 million tons, and Brazil, down 0.8 million tons. Barley ending stocks are projected higher for EU-27 and Kazakhstan, up 1.1 million tons and 0.4 million tons, respectively.

Rice

US rice production in 2009/10 is forecast at 218.2 million cwt, 2.4 million below last month due to a decrease in yield. Average yield is estimated at 7,038 pounds per acre, down 77 pounds from last month. Harvested area is unchanged at 3.10 million acres. Long-grain rice production is lowered 1.7 million cwt to 152.5 million, while combined medium- and short-grain production is down 0.7 million to 65.7 million. Imports, domestic and residual use, and exports are unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks are projected at 44.2 million cwt, down 2.4 million from last month and the largest stocks since 1986/87.

The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.85 to $14.85 per cwt, up $0.85 per cwt on both ends of the range. The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.50 to $13.50 per cwt, up $0.75 per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $18.00 to $19.00 per cwt, up $0.50 per cwt on each end. The increase in prices is based on monthly farm prices reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) through mid-October and a number of other factors including the expectation that world prices will continue to be supported by increased trade prospects in India and the Philippines. A smaller US crop will also be supportive. Additionally, the higher prices are supported in part by the prospects for lower production in South America, principally in Brazil and Uruguay. Continuing Egyptian export restrictions are also contributing to higher prices, particularly for medium-grain rice. The weakening dollar is also contributing to higher commodity prices.

Global 2009/10 rice production and consumption are lowered from a month ago, while imports are raised. World production is forecast at 432.1 million tons, down 1.6 million from last month due mainly to decreases for Brazil, India, the Philippines, and the United States. India’s 2009/10 crop is projected at 83.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and the smallest crop since 1997/98. Global consumption is lowered from a month ago due mainly to decreases for India and the Philippines. The 2009/10 import projection is raised 860,000 tons, mainly due to larger imports for Afghanistan, Brazil, India, and the Philippines. Global ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 85.9 million tons, nearly the same as last month, but a decrease of 4.8 million from the 2008/09 estimate.

Oilseeds

US oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 8.8 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month as larger supplies are only partly offset by increased exports. Oilseed crush is almost unchanged as a small increase for soybeans is offset by a reduction for cottonseed. Total US oilseed production is projected at 97.8 million tons, up 1.7 million from last month due to higher soybean production. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.319 billion bushels, up 69 million from last month. The soybean yield is projected at a record 43.3 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the previous estimate. Soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to 1.325 billion due to increased supplies and increased global import demand, mainly for China, EU-27, and Russia. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 270 million bushels, up 40 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and products are projected higher for 2009/10, reflecting higher corn and soybean futures prices. The US season-average soybean price range is projected at $8.20 to $10.20 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $250 to $310 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 33 to 37 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 428.9 million tons, up 3.6 million from last month. Increased soybean and rapeseed production are only partly offset by lower sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanut production. Global soybean production is projected higher with increases for the United States, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Brazil soybean production is projected at a record 63 million tons, up 1 million from last month due to an expected increased harvested area. Argentina soybean production is raised 0.5 million tons to 53 million due to increased area as producers shift additional area to soybeans from sunflowerseed. Argentina sunflowerseed production is reduced due to lower planted area resulting from dry conditions during the planting season. Global rapeseed production is projected higher as increased production for EU-27 is only partly offset by a reduction for Canada. Other changes include higher sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and EU-27, and lower cottonseed production for China.

Global oilseed stocks for 2009/10 are raised 3.1 million tons to 69.0 million. Increased soybean stocks for Brazil, the United States, and China account for most of the change. Rapeseed stocks for Canada, EU-27, and India are also increased. China soybean imports are raised for 2008/09 and 2009/10 to 41.1 million and 40.5 million tons, respectively. Soybean exports for 2009/10 are raised for Brazil and Argentina. Global vegetable oil stocks are projected 1 million tons higher due to increases in soybean oil stocks for Brazil, China, and India, and increased palm oil stocks for China and Malaysia.

Further Reading

- You can view the full report by clicking here.

November 2009

the Fish Site Editor

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