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GOAL Conference 2013: Declines Expected in Global Aquaculture Production

Lucy Towers
10 October 2013, at 1:00am

ANALYSIS - Coho salmon is expecting a 20 per cent decrease in production in 2014 and cod production is also forecast to decline by a huge 50 per cent, according to a global aquaculture production outlook by Business Economist Ragnar Tveteras, at the Global Aquaculture Alliance (GAA) GOAL conference in Paris, writes Lucy Towers TheFishSite Editor, live from the show.

Tilapia production is expected to be 4.4 million tonnes in 2013 and a further growth of 2.3 per cent is estimated for 2014.

Pangasius from Viet Nam should be two million tonnes for 2013, whilst catfish (excluding pangasius) is expecting a small increase from last year to 3.7 million tonnes and a further small increase in 2014.

In his outlook, Mr Tveteras noted that this year he had obtained estimates for carp production in China. The figures show that carp production for 2013 is estimated to be 12.4 million tonnes.

In terms of salmon, Atlantic salmon production will be down this year but it is set to increase by three per cent in 2014. Coho salmon is to experience a huge drop of 20 per cent for 2014, with the main producer, Chile, driving the decline.

The production of rainbow trout has reached a plateau over the last few years but the forecast is for a three per cent decline in 2014.

Due to relatively stable prices, Mediterranean sea bass and sea bream production is to increase seven per cent in 2013 to 332,000 tonnes and a further two per cent increase in 2014.

Not surprisingly, forecasts for cod paint a sad story. A huge drop in production is expected due to the low prices. Around 6,000 tonnes are expected this year and a 50 per cent decline is expected for 2014.

Overall, Mr Tveteras stated that aquaculture is now struggling to double in a decade, after many species passed their production peak in the early 2000's.