Only between 1.2 million and 3.8 million sockeye salmon are forecast to return, down from five million last year, said Mike Lapointe, Chief Biologist for the Pacific Salmon Commission, reports the Vancouver Sun.
That could put the return lower than the dismal 1.5 million that returned in 2009 and led the federal government to call for an inquiry into the decline of Fraser River sockeye. The Cohen Commission is due to release its final report by 30 September.
Mr Lapointe said the median forecast is a return of 2.1 million fish this year, which means there's a one-in-four chance the run could be as low as 1.2 million.
That would mean that only about 900,000 fish would be left for harvest, he said. Most of those fish would be reserved for First Nations for food and ceremonial use, with a portion going to the US fishery.
An all-aboriginal fishery would still mean consumers will be able to buy Fraser River sockeye because bands are legally allowed to sell their catch.
However, there is also a one-in-four chance the return could be as high as 3.8 million, said Mr LaPointe, which means there could be a small Canadian commercial fishery on the Fraser of about 500,000 fish.
Mr Lapointe said the situation looks bleak: "It's not an optimistic scenario at all," he said, noting commercial fishers are prepared for the worst. Predictions are based on four-year sock-eye cycles, which means this year's low estimates are based on the small number of salmon spawned in 2008.
