Acres to be planted in corn are expected to be down 1 per cent. Total feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are forecast down 1 per cent. However, strong domestic use of feed grains, boosted by a 9-per cent rise in corn used to make ethanol, is expected to keep feed grains ending stocks very low, down 27 per cent from 2008/09. With plentiful supplies of distillers’ grains from ethanol production in 2009/10, feed and residual use is expected to total 141 million tons for the four feed grains, down from 145 million in 2008/09. Prices are expected to remain strong for all four feed grains but will be down from 2008/09.
World coarse grain production in 2009/10 is projected to be down 1.5 per cent from the previous year’s record, but beginning stocks are up more than production is down, leaving global supplies large and slightly increasing. Use is expected to increase and exceed production, trimming projected ending stocks. Several governments, such as those of China, the EU, and Russia, are purchasing and storing grain to support producer prices, so foreign coarse grain stocks are forecast up fractionally while U.S. stocks drop.
World corn trade is expected to expand 5 per cent in 2009/10 as improved economic growth boosts demand for meat and increases feed demand. Competition in the corn export market is projected lower, mostly due to reduced production in Ukraine. The combination of slightly reduced competition and increasing world corn trade is projected to boost U.S. 2009/10 corn exports 4.5 million tons to 49.0 million (1.9 billion bushels for September-August).
Feed Grain Production Prospects Down in 2009/10
U.S. feed grain production for 2009/10 is projected at 323 million metric tons, down from 325.9 million in 2008/09. This year-to-year decrease steams from smaller projected planted and harvested area for corn, sorghum, and barley. Oats production is expected to increase from that in 2008 because of increases in planted and harvested acres, plus expected higher trend yields.
For the four feed grains combined, planted and harvested area is down in 2009/10, and yield is projected higher. Planted area is based on producer intentions reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested areas and yields are projected for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats (for more complete descriptions see the following sections for each commodity). Beginning feed grain stocks are 45.3 million tons in 2009/10, up slightly from 45.1 million tons in 2008/09. Total feed grain supply is projected at 371.1 million tons in 2008/09, down from 374 million in 2008/09.
Feed grain use is expected to increase 3 per cent in 2009/10, with higher projected ethanol production. Feed and residual use is expected to decline 3.9 million tons in 2009/10 to 141.1 million. High feed prices are expected to encourage more feeders to include distillers’ grains in their feeding rations. Exports are expected to increase from 48.1 million tons in 2008/09 to 52.3 million in 2009/10 as the global economy is expected to begin recovery. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected at 144.5 million tons in 2009/10, up from 135.6 million in 2008/09, nearly all on increased corn use for ethanol. Ending feed grain stocks are projected to decrease 12.1 million tons from the 45.3 million in 2008/09. Prices are expected to remain strong but down from record highs in 2008/09.
Changes to 2008/09 Balance Sheets
Changes were made to corn and barley for the 2008/09 marketing year. Sorghum and oats remain unchanged this month for the 2008/09 marketing year. Corn used to make ethanol was increased 50 million bushels to 3.75 billion bushels, reflecting expectations for sharply higher ethanol production in March and April as indicated by weekly gasoline production data from the Energy Information Administration. Corn exports were also raised 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion, due to the pace of exports to date and outstanding sales. Forecasted season average barley prices were lowered.
Feed and Residual Use Down in 2009/10
The 2009/10 feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus feed wheat on a standardized September-August marketing year is projected at 145.9 million metric tons, down 3.53 million from the previous year. Feed and residual use per grain consuming animal unit (GCAU) is projected at 1.60 tons in 2009/10, unchanged from 2008/09. Total GCAUs are projected to be down 1.8 per cent over the period to 91.5 million. GCAUs are expected to be down because of reduced numbers of cattle and reduced sow farrowings as demand remains weak in the livestock sector.
The following is a breakdown of animal production estimates for calendar year 2010:
- Beef production is expected to be 26.1 billion pounds, down from 26.6 billion a year earlier.
- Pork production is projected at 22.6 billion pounds, down from 22.8 billion in 2009.
- Poultry production is forecast at 42.0 billion pounds, up from 41.3 billion pounds in 2009.
- Egg production is expected to be 7.6 billion dozen, up less than 1 per cent from 2009.
- Milk production is expected to be 186.8 billion pounds, down slightly from 2009.
Corn Production Forecast Down in 2009/10
The 2009/10 corn crop is projected at 12,090 million bushels, down from 12,101 million bushels a year earlier. This year-over-year change stems from a 1-millionacre expected decrease in planted area to 85 million acres. Planted area is from the Prospective Plantings report. Harvested acreage is based on estimated demand for silage based on roughage-consuming animal units (RCAU) and historical abandonment over 2005-08.
Partly offsetting the decline in area is a 1.5-bushel per acre year-to-year increase in yield. At 155.4 bushels per acre, the 2009 yield is projected 1.5 bushels per acre below the 1990-2008 trend based on the slower-than-average pace of planting in the eastern Corn Belt as reported in Crop Progress. The projected yield assumes a mid-May planting progress well below the 10-year average and just below last year’s delayed progress. In recent years, USDA has adjusted its linear trend yield forecast to reflect deviations from normal planting progress using an economic model that includes a trend variable, July rainfall and temperatures, and planting progress as of mid-May. (An earlier version of the model is detailed in “A Corn Yield Model: Indications for 1996” by Paul Westcott, Feed Outlook, FDS-0396, March 1996 http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/ers/FDS//1990s/1996/FDS-03-13- 1996.asc.)
As of May 10, 2009, 48 per cent of the 2008 corn crop has been planted, which is unchanged from the same time last year and down from the 5-year average of 71 per cent. However, as last year’s planting pace shows, significant recovery in plantings can occur by mid-to-late May.
Beginning corn stocks for 2009/10 are forecast at 1,600 million bushels, down from 1,624 million in 2008/09. Total corn supply is expected to be 13,705 million bushels, down 35 million from 2008/09.
Total corn use is projected at 12,560 million bushels for 2009/10, up from 12,140 million for the current year. This year-over-year increase stems from increased exports and FSI use, however, projected feed and residual use is down. FSI use is projected at 5,410 million bushels, up from 5,040 million bushels expected in 2008/09. Increased ethanol production is driving the year-over-year increase. Exports for 2009/10 are projected at 1,900 million bushels, up 150 million from the previous year. Expected strong demand for corn and increased supplies of distillers’ grains are forecast to lower feed and residual use of corn in 2009/10. Corn feed and residual in 2009/10 is projected at 5,250 million bushels, down from the 5,350 million bushels expected to be used in 2008/09.
Ending stocks of corn for 2009/10 are projected at 1,145 million bushels, down from 1,600 million projected for 2008/09. Season-average corn prices for 2009/10 are projected at $3.70 to $4.50 per bushel, compared with the record $4.20 in 2007/08 and $4.10-$4.30 per bushel projected for 2008/09.
Food, Seed, and Industrial Use Prospects up in 2009/10
FSI use in 2009/10 is expected to increase 7 per cent from that of a year earlier. At the projected 5,410 million bushels, FSI will equal 43 per cent of total use, up slightly from an expected 42 per cent in 2008/09 and 34 per cent in 2007/08. High fructose corn syrup use is projected to be unchanged from the 470 million bushels expected to be used in 2008/09.
Glucose and dextrose use of corn in 2009/10 is expected to be 240 million bushels, up slightly from 236.9 million in 2008/09, which was up fractionally from 2007/08. In 2009/10, corn used to produce starch is expected to be 250 million bushels, up 6.4 per cent from expected starch use in 2008/09. As the economy begins to rebound into 2010, there is a projected strengthening of demand for construction materials and paper products.
Corn use for ethanol in 2009/10 is projected to increase 9.3 per cent to 4.1 billion bushels, following an expected 24-per cent gain in 2008/09. This increase in corn used for ethanol reflects the rising Federal biofuels mandate and improved blending incentives as higher gasoline prices increase demand for ethanol. Ethanol producer returns, however, will remain under pressure as excess production capacity weighs on producer margins. Monthly ethanol production reported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was at 647,000 barrels per day in February 2009 (the latest available data), helping boost first-half 2008/09 production to a record 4.9 billion gallons.
Sorghum Production Down Sharply in 2009/10
The 2009/10 sorghum crop is projected to be 380 million bushels, down from 472 million in 2008/09. This year-to-year decrease steams from lower planted area and a 1.1-bushel-per acre decrease in expected yield to 63.9 bushels per acre. Projected harvested area is expected to decline 1.3 million acres to 6.0 million. The yield projection is based on a 10-year average (1998-2008, excluding 2002, 2003, and 2007), adjusted for rounding in production. Planted area comes from the prospective plantings report, and harvested area comes from the 2004-08 average harvested-to-planted ratio.
Forecasted 2009/10 sorghum beginning stocks are 65 million bushels. Total supply is projected to be 445 million bushels, down from 525 in 2008/09 due to an expected decrease in production.
Total use is expected to decrease to 390 million in 2009/10 from 460 million bushels projected for the previous year. Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is projected at 160 million bushels, down from an expected 220 million in 2008/09, as livestock production is forecast to remain down through 2010 as a result of weak demand. FSI use is projected at 90 million bushels, down from 110 million bushels last year. This decrease stems from lower expected use of sorghum for ethanol production. Exports are projected at 140 million bushels in 2009/10, up from 130 million in 2008/09, as demand for sorghum begins to increase worldwide.
Ending sorghum stocks are projected at 55 million bushels in 2009/10, down from an expected 65 million in 2008/09. The 2009/10 season average sorghum price is projected at $3.15 to $3.85, compared to $3.20 to $3.40 per bushel projected for 2008/09.
Barley Production To Decrease 14 Million Bushels in 2008/09
The barley crop is projected at 225 million bushels in 2009/10, compared with 239 million in 2008/09. This decrease comes from a 281,000-acre decrease in planted area, which is projected at 4.0 million acres in 2009/10. Harvested area is forecast at 3.4 million acres, down from 3.8 million in 2008/09. Barley yield is forecast to increase 1.8 bushel per acre to 65.4 bushels per acre in 2009/10.
Barley planted area is from the Prospective Plantings report, and harvested area is based on the 2004-08 average relationship between harvested and planted area. The barley yield is based on the 1960-2008 trend, adjusted for rounding in production.
Barley beginning stocks are expected to be 89 million bushels, up from 68 million in 2008/09. Imports for 2009/10 are forecast at 25 million bushels, down from 30 million bushels expected in 2008/09, as carry-in supplies are plentiful. Total supply is 339 million bushels, up slightly from 338 million in 2008/09. Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is projected at 70 million bushels, up from 65 million in 2008/09. FSI use is unchanged year-to-year at 170 million bushels, as domestic beer demand is expected to be steady. Exports are projected at 20 million, up from 14 million expected a year earlier.
Ending barley stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 79 million bushels, down from 89 million in 2008/09. Prices received by farmers for barley are expected to average $3.75 to $4.45 per bushel in 2009/10, compared with $5.20 per bushel in 2008/09.
Oats Production Prospects up in 2009/10
Oats production is projected at 90 million bushels in 2009, up slightly from 89 million in 2008/09. This increase stems from a 183,000-acre increase in planted area to 3.4 million. Area harvested for grain is expected to remain unchanged from last year at 1.4 million. Yield is expected to increase 0.3 bushels per acre to 63.8 bushels per acre in 2009/10. Oats planted area is from the March Prospective Plantings report, and harvested area is based on the 2004-08 average relationship between harvested and planted area. The oats yield is projected based on 1960- 2008 trend, adjusting for rounding in production.
Forecast oats beginning stocks are 72 million bushels for 2009/10, up 5 million from 2008/09. Imports are projected at 110 million bushels, down 5 million from the previous year. This puts total 2009/10 oats supply at 272 million bushels, up slightly from 270 million expected in 2008/09.
Total 2009/10 oats use is projected at 203 million bushels, up from 198 million expected in 2008/09. Feed and residual use is projected at 125 million bushes, up 5 million from the expected use in 2008/09. FSI use is projected at 75 million bushels, unchanged from 2008/09. Exports of oats are projected at 3 million bushels, also unchanged from the previous year. Ending stocks are expected to be 69 million bushels, down from 72 million in 2008/09. Oats prices are projected at $2.20 to $3.00 per bushel, compared with $3.15 per bushel projected for 2008/09.
Hay Stocks up in 2008/09
Hay stocks on May 1, 2009, totaled 22.1 million tons, up 2 per cent from a year ago. Disappearance from December 1, 2008-May 1, 2009 totaled 81.6 million tons, compared with 82.5 million tons for the same period a year ago. RCAUs for 2008/09 are down 1 per cent. Hay disappearance per RCAU for the 2008/09 marketing year (May-April) is up 20 per cent from the 1.96 tons per RCAU consumed in 2007/08.
Hay stocks decreased from last year across most of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain States. Texas and Oklahoma had the largest decreases due in part to lower hay production in 2008. In addition, dry weather last fall and winter resulted in poor pasture conditions, which increased supplemental hay feeding. Hay stocks in North Dakota and Montana were down 44 and 42 per cent, respectively, due to a combination of lower production and spring snow storms that prolonged the hay feeding season.
Silage production in 2008 was up 5 per cent, and, together, hay supply plus silage per RCAU were up 7 per cent from the previous year. Farmers in March indicated they plan to harvest 60.3 million acres of hay in 2009, up slightly from 2008.
Meanwhile, in the eastern United States, higher production, milder winter weather, increased precipitation, and lower cattle inventories contributed to higher hay stocks on May 1. The largest increase was shown in Tennessee, where stocks were 157 per cent higher than those of a year earlier. Other notable increases were shown in Alabama and Kentucky, both up 150 per cent from May 2008. Stocks in the western United States were also higher than those of a year ago, as lower demand was noted in California, Oregon, and Washington.
Given estimated livestock numbers, current pasture and range conditions, and hay stocks, prices are expected to remain strong in the 2009/10 hay marketing year but down from record highs in 2008/09. The simple average of all hay prices from May 2008 to April 2009 was $149.16 per ton, compared with $129.33 per ton during the same period a year earlier.
World Coarse Grain Production in 2009/10 To Decline Slightly
While U.S. coarse grain production in 2009/10 is projected to slip 1 per cent from that of a year earlier, foreign production is expected to decline 2 per cent. A return to trend yields in the European Union (EU), Former Soviet Union (FSU), and China implies a decline from the previous year’s bumper yields. The assumed return to trend yields results in a small decline for foreign yields of rye, mixed grains, oats, barley, corn, and millet, but an increase for sorghum. Foreign area is little changed, up 0.2 per cent, with a decline in oats area more than offset by increases expected in sorghum and barley plantings. Foreign corn area is projected up fractionally. Coarse grains prices have declined from the record levels reached in the summer of 2008 but remain attractive enough to maintain area in many countries.
Foreign coarse grain production in 2009/10 is forecast to reach 758.5 million tons, down 13.8 million from the previous year. Foreign corn production is projected to reach 478.0 million tons, 2.4 million less than a year earlier; barley production is projected at 141.4 million, down 7.3 million; sorghum production is forecast up 1.9 million to 51.9 million; millet production is projected at 35.2 million tons, down 0.6 million; oats are projected at 22.9 million, down 2.5 million; and rye production is down 1.5 million to 15.6 million.
China is the leading foreign coarse grain producer, with 2009/10 production projected to reach 169.2 million tons, down 2 per cent. Corn production is expected to reach 162.5 million tons, down 3.0 million tons from 2008 despite a small increase in area. The government is purchasing corn to support producer prices and incomes, maintaining large area. A trend yield is down 2 per cent from the 2008 record.
The EU is projected to produce 151.9 million tons of coarse grains in 2009/10, down 9.1 million tons from the previous year. Area is projected to decline 3 per cent, with reduced prices favoring oilseeds, especially rapeseed. EU barley production is expected to remain large, reaching 64.2 million tons, with area and average yield down slightly. EU corn production is forecast down 5.5 million tons to 56.9 million. Area is expected to decline 2 per cent, as prices are lower and production costs are higher. Average yield is forecast down 7 per cent from the 2008 record. Reduced area is also expected for rye and oats, with production projected at 8.6 million tons and 8.5 million tons, respectively.
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to produce a record 94.3 million tons of coarse grains in 2009/10, up slightly from the previous year. Corn and sorghum production are each expected to increase 1 per cent to 47.3 million tons and 25.2 million tons, respectively. The largest corn producer, South Africa, is projected to have a crop of 11.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from the previous year. While corn area is expected to increase, yields are unlikely to match the records of the last 2 years. Nigeria is projected to continue to expand corn area, and Kenya’s yields are expected to rebound from drought.
South America is forecast to produce 89.7 million tons of coarse grains in 2009/10, up 10.5 per cent from 2008/09. Corn is the region’s dominant grain, and both Brazil and Argentina are expected to have some reduction in corn area but much improved yields as 2008/09 yields were below trend due to drought in some regions.
Coarse grain production in the FSU is projected to drop 20 per cent in 2009/10 to 62.3 million tons. Most of the cut is in barley, down 10.6 million tons to 30.2 million. Barley area is projected down 1 per cent, but trend average yield is not expected to be nearly as good as in 2008 when an early retreat of snow cover across the region provided excellent growing conditions for winter barley and good planting conditions for spring barley. Corn production in the FSU is forecast down 12 per cent to 18.8 million tons, with most of the decline in Ukraine. The high cost of production of corn and Ukrainian producers’ financial problems are expected to limit corn area. Corn yields are not expected to match the previous year’s record. Corn area in Russia is projected to increase enough to offset reduced yields, boosting corn production in 2009. FSU oats and rye production are each expected to decline more than 1 million tons as yields return to trend levels.
South Asia’s coarse grain production is projected to reach 45.7 million tons, up 5 per cent from 2008/09. Corn and sorghum production in India is expected to rebound, with growth in area and corn yields better than that produced by spotty monsoon rains in 2008. Millet production is projected unchanged at 12.0 million tons.
Mexico is forecast to produce 31.5 million tons of coarse grains in 2009/10, down 2 per cent from that of a year earlier. Corn area is expected to decline slightly, with lower prices and trend yields that are below the 2008/09 record. Some corn area is expected to switch to sorghum, and the increased sorghum area likely will offset the return to trend yields, boosting sorghum production prospects.
Canada’s coarse grain production in 2009/10 is expected to decline 8 per cent to 25.0 million tons. Record barley yields achieved in 2008 are not expected to be repeated. Corn area is expected to increase, partly offsetting the return to lower trend yields. Reduced area and yields are expected for oats and rye.
Southeast Asia’s coarse grain production in 2009/10 is projected to increase 3 per cent to 26.9 million tons. Corn area and yield are expected to increase modestly in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Burma; in Thailand, a slight decline in area is expected to be offset by improved yields. Stable corn production is expected in the Philippines.
Coarse grain production in the Middle East is projected to increase 1.9 million tons to 17.9 million in 2009/10. Winter rains for barley were much better than those of a year earlier in Turkey (boosting expected yields 21 per cent) and parts of Iran, Syria, and Iraq. However, irrigation water deficits limited area and yield, especially in Iraq and southern Iran.
North Africa’s coarse grain production in 2009/10 has benefited from record to above-normal winter rains, boosting production 30 per cent to 12.9 million tons. Barley yields are projected to more than double in Morocco and Algeria.
Australia is projected to produce 11.5 million tons of coarse grains, up 4 per cent in 2009/10. Trend yields boost barley production prospects from those of a year earlier due to mediocre rains. Sorghum area is projected down 6 per cent, trimming production prospects as yields are not expected to change.
Increased Beginning Stocks Maintain Large Foreign Supplies
World coarse grain beginning stocks in 2009/10 are forecast to reach 183.5 million tons, up 23.8 million tons from the previous year. U.S. beginning stocks are up slightly, so nearly the entire stock buildup is in foreign countries. Foreign countries’ production in 2009/10 is projected down 13.8 million tons, while beginning stocks are up 23.5 million, boosting supplies.
Government market intervention has been crucial, facilitating the increased stock holding. China is purchasing large amounts of corn to support farmers’ incomes and is expected to maintain huge government-owned stocks, boosting coarse grain stocks during 2008/09 by 13.4 million tons to 53.7 million. In the EU, large amounts of barley are expected to move into government intervention, helping boost coarse grain stocks 7.5 million tons to 20.5 million. Russia’s government has also stepped in to purchase grains, helping boost coarse grain stock 4.4 million tons to 5.9 million.
Recovering Economic Growth To Help Boost Feed Use
Macroeconomic growth is assumed to return or increase in many countries in 2010, boosting demand for meat and derived demand for feed grains for animal feed. Global coarse grain use for 2009/10 is projected up 2 per cent to 1.09 billion tons. Foreign feed and residual use of coarse grains is projected to grow 7.6 million tons, or 1.5 per cent, in 2009/10 to 507.4 million tons. Other uses by foreign countries, mostly food and industrial use, are projected up 6.0 million tons to 299.9 million tons.
China is projected to increase coarse grain use 5.8 million tons to 166.0 million during 2009/10. Most of the increase is in feed use, as meat demand is expected to continue to grow. Coarse grain use in North Africa and the Middle East is projected up 2.0 million tons to 47.2 million, as domestic barley production increases in many countries and meat production expands. Brazil is expected to increase coarse grain feed use 2 per cent to 40.1 million tons, mostly corn, as meat exports begin to rebound in 2009/10. India’s coarse grain use is projected up 1.9 million tons to 38.4 million due to increased production and growing feed use. A rebound in feed use is expected to help Canada’s coarse grain use increase 1.1 million tons to 24.0 million tons. Increased production is supporting increased food use in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Growth in coarse grain use is slowed by stagnant use in countries like the EU, Japan, and South Korea where meat production industries are mature. Projected use is down 1.8 million tons to 55.6 million in the FSU due to sharply reduced production.
Coarse Grain Stocks Decline in 2009/10 Concentrated in the United States
While U.S. coarse grain stocks, mostly corn, are expected to drop dramatically in 2009/10, foreign coarse grain stocks are forecast up fractionally to 138.7 million tons. China is expected to continue to support producer corn prices with government purchases, boosting ending stocks 3.9 million tons to 57.6 million. With large production, North Africa and the Middle East are expected to increase coarse grain stocks. EU stocks are projected unchanged at 20.5 million tons. Ending stocks are projected lower enough in the FSU, Brazil, Canada, and other countries to offset most of the increases in China.
World Coarse Grain Trade To Increase Modestly in 2009/10
Global coarse grain trade in 2009/10 (October-September) is projected to reach 106.4 million tons, up 3.2 million tons from the previous year, but remain 22.5 million less than the record set in 2007/08. Corn trade in 2009/10 is projected up 4.0 million tons year-to-year to 80.9 million, and sorghum trade is forecast up slightly to 5.6 million, but barley trade is expected to drop 1.1 million to 17.2 million. Oats trade is up fractionally, and rye is down slightly.
World barley trade is projected lower, mostly because of increased production in importing countries in North Africa and the Middle East. Exports by Ukraine, Russia, and the EU are projected to decline, while those by Australia and Canada will increase. These export changes reflect changes in production and price competitiveness.
Increased corn imports are projected for several countries as improved economic growth boosts demand for meat and increases demand for feed. Canada is projected to increase corn imports 0.8 million tons to 2.4 million due to an increase in use and reduced coarse grain production. Malaysia is expected to increase corn imports 0.6 million tons to 2.6 million because of sharply reduced stocks and a small rebound in feed use. Egypt and Mexico are each forecast to boost corn imports 0.5 million tons in 2009/10 as feed use recovers in Egypt and corn production declines in Mexico. Most other major importers are expected to increase imports 0.1 or 0.2 million tons in 2009/10, mostly due to small increases in feed use. However, Kenya, with recovering production, is projected to drop imports 0.4 million to 0.1 million. Other countries with small declines in corn imports projected for 2009/10 include Brazil, Japan, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and some FSU countries.
Brazil is expected to remain the world’s second largest corn exporter in October- September 2009/10, maintaining 10.0 million tons of exports. Increased production harvested during 2010 will support exports, but port congestion and soybeans receiving logistical priority in shipping and handling are expected to combine with recovering domestic demand to limit exports.
Argentina is forecast to increase corn exports 1.0 million tons to 8.0 million in 2009/10 due to increased production. Government export registration procedures and export taxes are expected to continue to limit exports.
Increased production is projected to increase corn exports for several countries. India’s exports are boosted 0.6 million tons in 2009/10 to 1.0 million; Thailand’s are up 0.25 million to 0.75 million; and Serbia’s are up 0.2 million to 1.2 million.
EU prices are expected to remain high enough to limit corn exports to the same 2.0 million tons forecast for 2008/09. Several other exporters, such as Russia and Paraguay, are projected to have stable corn exports.
Ukraine is projected to drop corn exports 2.0 million tons in 2009/10 to 2.5 million due to reduced production and a growing poultry sector. South Africa is forecast to trim corn exports 0.5 million tons to 2.0 million as production declines.
U.S. Corn Exports Projected up 10 per cent in 2009/10, 2008/09 up too
Foreign corn exports in 2009/10 are expected to decline 0.5 million tons to 31.9 million, as reductions in Ukraine and South Africa more than offset increases in other countries. The combination of slightly reduced competition and increasing world corn trade is projected to boost U.S. corn exports 4.5 million tons to 49.0 million.
U.S. corn exports forecast for 2008/09 are up 0.5 million tons this month to 44.5 million. Recently, export sales and shipments of corn have increased. Census export data for March 2009 showed an increased pace, leaving October-March corn shipments at 21.1 million tons. April grain inspections were nearly as large, reaching 3.9 million tons, leaving exports in the first half of 2008/09 at about 25.0 million tons. Recent reports boosted outstanding export sales at the end of April 2009 to over 10.0 million tons, supporting the increased forecast.