Market supply and demand
Supply: Fishmeal port inventories totalled about 157,950 tonnes, down slightly by 1 percent from the previous week.
Demand: Departure volume fell 14 percent to 6,734 tonnes.
FOB reference quotes for standard Peruvian FAQ fishmeal were in the range of US$1,030-1,050/tonne, down US$20-30/tonne from the previous week. Consequently, global distributors have lowered their CNF China quotes. CNF China quotes for Peruvian standard FAQ fishmeal were between US$1,070/tonne and US$1,080/tonne, with some at the lower level of US$1,050/tonne.
Since the start of November, weak imported fishmeal demand has been further dampened by the release of significant volumes of relatively low-priced locally produced fishmeal into the market.
Peruvian fish hauls have been favourable since the start of Peru's new fishing season in early-November, which somewhat dampened external prices and hence near-term price outlook in China.
On the other hand, current import costs of spot inventories are far higher than general market prices. Hence, traders are reluctant to make any further downward price adjustments to avoid bigger losses. With the bulk of existing port inventories left in the hands of a few major traders, and expectations of low arrival volumes over the next two months, price movements have been regulated to some extent. Additionally, global supply has remained tight.
This mix of positive and negative market developments should keep near-term prices mostly stable, with minor fluctuations seen in some regions.
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