© Kontali
According to seafood analytics firm Kontali, the agreement delays major regulatory changes by two to four years, offering producers a more predictable framework while providing time to align investment cycles with new environmental expectations.
As a result of the deal, up to 29,000 tonnes of licensed biomass could be restored or retained through the adoption of closed containment and low-lice technologies – a 2.5 percent increase in Norway’s Maximum Allowable Biomass (MAB), according to Kontali’s analysis. When combined with expected gains through upcoming traffic-light adjustments in 2026 and 2028, total biomass growth in coastal farming could reach close to 7 percent before the new regulatory framework is implemented.
A new rulebook will be developed through extensive consultation with stakeholders. The forthcoming regulations are expected to create stronger incentives for environmental performance, including provisions to reward the adoption of low and zero-lice technologies.
Philip Scrase, chief analyst officer at Kontali, said in a press release, “The cross-party agreement brings a welcome degree of predictability to a sector that’s been grappling with regulatory uncertainty. By linking future growth to environmental performance, particularly sea lice reduction, policymakers are signalling a more constructive and long-term approach. This gives producers and suppliers clearer incentives to invest in technology – but the real test will be whether the tax system evolves to support that transition.”
Reform success requires unlocking investment
A misalignment has emerged between the government's desire to be technology neutral and its current tax legislation. The tax system effectively disincentivises investment in onshore post-smolt facilities by taxing profits during the later sea phase. The sea phase is where salmon mature and achieve their greatest value. However, it is also where most of the environmental challenges occur.
Heavy taxation on the sea phase makes it less attractive for producers to invest in technologies that could directly address environmental issues, such as sea lice and mortality, during this key phase. These include larger post-smolt systems, closed-containment facilities, and semi-closed or submerged cages – all of which are core targets in the government’s own white paper.
In fact, producers have put on hold an estimated NOK 40 billion (approx. €3.43 billion) in planned onshore post-smolt facility projects, according to Kontali research and analysis. This is largely because 80–85 percent of profits only become visible – or taxable – during the sea phase, which is subject to additional taxation. So, while the deal is welcome, with salmon farmers still likely facing a tax system at odds with the stated aim of the reforms, they may be left with no option other than reducing production or absorbing heavy capital expenditure and rising costs.
For the agreement to deliver on its full potential, Kontali emphasises that environmental ambition must be matched by a supportive fiscal regime. Predictability is a critical step forward, but long-term success will depend on whether Norway can align its regulatory and fiscal frameworks to unlock investment in the technologies that make sustainable growth possible.
