Abstract
Designed to ascertain the compatibility of national aquaculture production forecasts with the global prevision of the sector's growth to 2020 and beyond, the report attempts to answer three questions:
Do individual countries have the ambition to expand their aquaculture sector to meet global demand forecasts, and are their projections realistic?
Is the sum of national production forecasts compatible with global projections of anticipated requirements from the aquaculture sector?
What planning lessons can be learnt from examining individual country plans, and how could the process of aquaculture planning be improved?
Three global forecasts (Delgado et al., 2003; Wijkstrm, 2003; Ye, 1999) were used as a
benchmark against which countries ambitions were assessed through an analysis of the
contents of their national aquaculture development plans.
Results showed that the countries studied do wish to expand their aquaculture output and,
with some exceptions, their assumptions were realistic as most governments appeared to
endorse the sectors growth. Aggregation quantitative production targets from the national
plans indicated that global forecasts may have underestimated the future supply of fish food
coming from aquaculture. The future expansion of Chinese aquaculture remains critical but
using a modest 2 percent annual growth rate and without increases in food fish output from
capture fisheries, results suggested that most of the demand projections for fish would be met
in three forthcoming decades.
Thus, aggregated country productions from aquaculture are
expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent over the period 20102030.
In terms of planning, appraisal of plans and strategies revealed a generally weak planning
process as methodologies and procedures tended to be sketchily reported. A planning
framework with issues to address is suggested with the back-up of a consensus-building
technique such as the Delphi method to improve the quality of future plans and enable an
evaluation of their likelihood of success, as transparency, legitimacy and agreement are key to
the success of a plan.
Contents
INTRODUCTION
- METHODOLOGY: APPROACH AND CONSTRAINTS
- Selection of countries, collection and analysis of national information
- Framework for analysis of the contents of national aquaculture development strategies and plans
- Evaluation of existing global forecasts (supply and demand) and realism of assumption for national aquaculture production forecasts
- Comparison of the "sum" of national forecasts with global projections
- Planning lessons
- Limitations of the study
- RESULTS: GLOBAL FORECASTS AND NATIONAL PLANS
- Global forecasts
- Future global aquaculture production
- Regional perspectives
- National projections
- The "sum" of national production targets comparison between global and national forecasts
- Constraints to growth
- Global forecasts
- PLANNING LESSONS
- Planning: a rational process
- Planning methods
- Types of planning
- Participation and consensus
- Reflections on aquaculture country plans and strategies
- What are the criteria for a successful planning process?
- What should be the assumptions and factors upon which to base projections?
- What decision-making methods are the most suitable, and in which context?
- CONCLUSIONS
- Aquaculture forecasts
- Aquaculture planning
APPENDIX 1: SUMMARY OF CONTENTS OF COUNTRY PLANS
APPENDIX 2: NOTES AND COUNTRY PLANS REFERENCES
4 Conclusions
4.1 Aquaculture forecasts
Findings suggest that answers to the two questions raised at the beginning of the study,
namely: (1) do individual countries have a realistic ambition to expand their aquaculture
production and (2) is the sum of national forecasts likely to be compatible with projected
increases in demand for food fish, are generally positive. Countries do wish to expand
aquaculture output, and with some exceptions, their assumptions were realistic. The
examination of national plans and strategies has provided unique insights into the ambition
and commitment of governments to develop aquaculture, and most have appeared to endorse
the sectors growth. National priorities for development, in particular with regard to the role
of aquaculture to contribute to food security (often cited as one of the three reasons behind a
countrys will to develop the sector, along with foreign exchange earnings and economic
growth) was indicative of the realisation that aquaculture can be an innovative motor of
growth with many additional benefits, whilst revealing growing concerns over overexploitation
of capture fisheries and the motivation to find alternatives to declining catches.
As for the second question, aggregation of national plans indicated that global forecasts
underestimated the supply of fish food coming from aquaculture. Chinas future expansion is
critical but using a modest 2 percent growth rate and without increases in food fish output
from capture fisheries, results suggested that most of the demand projections would be met.
Thus, aggregated country productions from aquaculture are expected to grow at an average
annual growth rate of 4.5 percent over the period 20102030. From these findings, a
conclusion, yet sanguine, may be that the aquaculture sector could replicate the expansion of
agriculture. However, much depends on the realism of assumptions used to support projected
targets, and countries formulating development plans for their aquaculture sector are
encouraged to place a stronger emphasis on the rationale supporting their production
forecasts. This is useful to improved sector development planning, at an international scale,
and progress monitoring. Many factors affect the evolution of an activity like aquaculture and
setting realistic production targets is a difficult task. The sector is susceptible to unforeseen
shocks, meteorological, pathological or economic, when countries compete in marketing a
commodity and expand their production simultaneously.
The level of accuracy of projections can only be assessed from the clarity and realism of the
assumptions upon which they are based. The scrutiny of global projections requires explicit
calculations and assumptions, which is not always the case for national aquaculture
development plans. However, country plans and strategies reveal governments commitment
to aquaculture development. From this perspective, national plans may be more informative
than global forecasts to gauge where future production impulses will originate and what will
shape future regional development trends.
Whilst macro projection models were based on commodity prices, per capita incomes, rates of
population growth and landings from capture fisheries to estimate future supply, population
density could be another factor to take into consideration in the setting of future production
targets. This is suggested through the examples of Norway and Brazil, for which low
population densities are seen as an asset to develop aquaculture further whilst avoiding
conflicts over resource use and social opposition as typically encountered in more densely
populated areas.
Because the gap between the estimated requirements from aquaculture in the next decades and
what countries expected production was not large (even with a modest 2 percent annual
growth for China), there may not be causes for immediate concern. Proper monitoring of
aquaculture output should be maintained (or developed in countries where it is not yet in
place). Technological developments could bring answers to immediate concerns over
resource use: self-maintained offshore cages for intensive production (Mann, 2004),
alleviating pressure from coastlines and inland waters, could significantly contribute to
increases in aquaculture outputs and stabilisation of fish prices.
However, potential for high
profits from the farming of high-value marine finfish may be the prime motive behind this
form of aquaculture and, in the case of the United States, it has been recommended that a
moratorium is imposed on its development until national aquaculture legislation is adopted
and comprehensive, open and transparent regulations are finalized (Belton et al., 2004) to
avoid loopholes and conflicts over the use of coastal and offshore resources. Further concerns
may be voiced over the market allocation of this type of production. Targeting developed
country markets with high value fish exports is often a prime aim for many developing
countries. Balancing both domestic needs for extra protein provision in low-income, fooddeficit
countries, and foreign income generation from the same activity is likely to involve
delicate and politically-challenging decisions.
4.2 Aquaculture planning
The third question addressed in this report dealt with planning processes. Appraisal of country
plans and strategies revealed a generally weak planning process. This was mainly due to the
fact that detailed information on the methodologies and procedures followed to complete a
final plan were omitted or sketchily reported. This shortcoming would be easily fixed and the
report has provided a planning framework of issues to address and which could be used
directly by countries willing to develop or enhance their aquaculture sectors. Back-up by the
application of the Delphi method as a consensus-building technique, not only would this
greatly improve the quality of future plans, but would also enable an evaluation of their
likelihood of success, as it has been demonstrated in the literature that transparency,
legitimacy and agreement (reached through participation and consensus) were key to the
success of a plan. It is also recommended that a more thorough assessment of past and present
trends, at both national and international levels, are useful in determining more accurately
areas with potential for development and in setting realistic production targets.
Beyond absolute increases in production, the sustainable development of aquaculture will
depend on accurate and sensitive planning as issues of resources allocation for production and
distribution of production will generate debate and require compromises. Much has been
written on the concept of sustainable development and its irreconcilable goals of economic
growth and development on one hand, and ecological (also social and economic)
sustainability of the other what Robinson (2004) has referred to as squaring the circle.
Aquaculture development could be seen in this sort of dilemma, and like the impossible
mathematical problem, will require new tools to be solved. These new tools call for a process
by which [multiple conflicting objectives] can be expressed and evaluated, ultimately as a
political act for any given community or jurisdiction.
Planning will therefore be key to the
sustainable development of aquaculture as it encourages the development of new modes of
public consultation and involvement intended to allow multiple views to be expressed and
debated (ibid, p. 382). Technical progress will undoubtedly play a crucial role in supporting
aquaculture development, but its direction and (re)orientation will have to be constantly
revisited through decision-making processes. By extension of Robinsons argument, the
sustainability of aquaculture and it fulfilling worlds expectations as a supplier of fish for food
security and as a vector of economic development is more likely to be a political act, than a
scientific achievement.
To continue reading this article, please click here (PDF)
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) - January 2004